Temporal and spatial dynamics of dengue cases in the municipality of Villavicencio Meta 2010 – 2020

Abstract

Dengue is currently considered the main vector-borne viral disease in Colombia. This disease generates a great epidemiological, social and economic impact derived from the costs and burden on health, disability and years of life lost. Although different studies have determined the temporal distribution in
Colombia and spatial distribution in some main cities, there are gaps in these epidemiological patterns in the capital of Meta. This study will be carried out under a retrospective longitudinal descriptive ecological study methodology. The response variable will be the reported SIVIGILA cases (codes 210, 220
and 580) with frequency per epidemiological week. All cases will be georeferenced. Environmental factors derived from satellite images from the MODIS sensor and socioeconomic factors from SIVIGILA and DANE will be taken as explanatory variables. The temporal behavior will be carried out using
ARIMA time series models, the spatial behavior will be determined by the nearest neighbor analysis, Kernel analysis and hot spot analysis (Gi * of Getis-Ord). To establish the associated factors, a multiple linear correlation or MMLG will be performed. The data processing will be carried out using the ArcGIS 10.3.1 (ESRI) and R 3.6 programs. From the temporal results, the possible temporal patterns and trends of dengue cases will be established. The spatial analysis will make it possible to determine the distribution of cases and areas of high and low concentration of the disease, identify transmission risk
areas and allow health decision-makers to establish control strategies at the specific time and place in Villavicencio.